Natural gas is finding support at the rising trend line visible on the 4-hour time frame. Applying the Fibonacci extension tool shows the next potential upside targets.

The 38.2% level is close by at $5.962 near the $6.000 major psychological mark and area of interest. Stronger bullish pressure could take natural gas up to the 50% level at $6.161 or the 61.8% extension that lines up with the swing high.

The 76.4% level is at $6.608 then the full extension is near the $7.000 major psychological mark.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that support is more likely to hold than to break. The 100 SMA is also holding as dynamic support in line with the rising trend line.

Stochastic is turning higher after reaching the oversold region, reflecting a return in bullish pressure. The oscillator has plenty of room to climb before indicating overbought conditions, so buyers could stay in control for much longer.

RSI appears to be bottoming out without reaching the oversold area, suggesting that buyers are eager to take over.

Natural gas still managed to rake in some gains even after the Department of Energy reported a larger build of 118 Bcf versus the estimated increase of 104 Bcf and the earlier gain of 86 Bcf.

This suggests much weaker than expected demand, given how temperatures have been dropping and weighing on demand for cooling commodities.

Still, supply constraints are expected with weather disturbances on the horizon. This could leave majority of production offline and output crippled for a while, possibly driving business to stockpile ahead of the winter season.

Near-term fundamentals suggest downside pressure on the commodity, though, until temperatures start dropping and lifting demand for heating commodities much later in the year.

In the meantime, the upcoming NFP release might have an impact on risk sentiment and commodity price action.