Natural gas is still pulling back from its latest rally, but there are signs that buyers could take over soon. Price is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and forming reversal candlesticks on support.

A larger pullback could still reach the rising trend line that has been holding all month. This lines up with the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point which adds to its strength as a floor.

On the subject of moving averages, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that support is more likely to hold than to break. The gap between the indicators is widening to reflect strengthening bullish momentum.

Stochastic is heading down but already dipping into the oversold region to signal exhaustion. Turning higher would confirm that buyers are ready to defend support and possibly take natural gas back up to the swing high at $6.273 or higher.

RSI has more room to move lower, so price could keep following suit until oversold conditions are met. However, a break below the trend line or the line in the sand around the 200 SMA and swing low might mark the start of a reversal from the uptrend.

Natural gas popped higher earlier on, but the move is being pinned on expiry dates for futures instead of a fundamental shift. Analysts have pointed out that dropping temperatures in the coming months would likely weigh on demand for cooling commodities in the near-term.

Still, natural gas prices look poised to bring a very expensive winter season in terms of heating supplies. Supply disruptions are still expected, possibly keeping production offline for a while and leaving some facilities needing repairs. This would weigh on inventory levels and possibly encourage businesses to stockpile ahead of time, keeping demand supported.