Natural gas could be in for a long-term reversal from its downtrend, as price is breaking above the resistance of a descending channel on the monthly chart.

Technical indicators, however, are suggesting that sellers might still return. The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the top of the channel might keep gains in check.

If that’s the case, natural gas could fall back to the nearby support areas at the mid-channel area of interest or the channel bottom. Then again, price is breaking past the channel top already, and closing above it would confirm that buyers are taking over.

Stochastic already reached the overbought zone to signal exhaustion among buyers, and turning lower would indicate that sellers are taking the upper hand. RSI has a bit more room to climb, but the oscillator is also testing the overbought area.

Natural gas is once again drawing bullish pressure from expectations of a large storage draw on account of production disruptions in the past week. Recall that Hurricane Ida led to some shutdowns in facilities along the Gulf Coast, likely weighing on output for a few days.

Meanwhile, demand was supported as warmer weather conditions were still in play for several states. Weather forecasts have been looking mixed lately, though, so an end to the summer season may be drawing near.

With that, natural gas could soon undergo a drop in purchases, as demand for cooling commodities drops. It could pick up again much later in the year or early next year when winter season peaks, lifting purchases for heating commodities.

Also, risk appetite favored natural gas price gains lately, as the downbeat US jobs report confirmed that the Fed would not rush to reduce stimulus.