Natural gas appears to be forming a rising channel on its 1-hour time frame with its higher highs and higher lows. Price has yet to bounce off the potential support at $4.500 to complete the channel.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to indicate that support is more likely to hold than to break. In that case, natural gas could find buyers at the channel bottom and recover to the top around $4.800 or higher.

The Fibonacci retracement tool shows additional support zones, with the 50% Fib lining up with the channel bottom and 100 SMA dynamic inflection point. The 38.2% Fib also seems to be holding as support at the moment, but a larger pullback could still reach the 61.8% Fib just above $4.400.

Stochastic is already on the move up to suggest that buyers are returning and might be able to push natural gas back up to the swing high and beyond. The oscillator has room to climb before reflecting overbought conditions.

RSI is also on the move up and has more ground to cover heading north, so buyers could stay in play for much longer.

Natural gas retreated at the start of the shortened trading week but might enjoy another leg higher if the inventory report due later on could show a large draw in stockpiles.

Recall that weather disturbances from Hurricane Ida led to shut ins among several production facilities, crippling output for a few days. Demand likely stayed supported, but cooler temperatures and rains might have dampened demand for cooling commodities like natural gas.

Still, risk appetite could be supportive of commodity gains since the downbeat NFP release confirmed that the US central bank is not likely to withdraw stimulus anytime soon. This could continue to support business and consumer activity in the coming months, lifting higher-yielding assets like commodities.