NZDUSD has formed higher lows and higher highs to create a rising channel on its 4-hour chart. Price is currently testing support and looks due for a bounce to resistance.

The 100 SMA has crossed above the 200 SMA to confirm that support is more likely to hold than to break. In that case, NZDUSD could recover to the top of the channel around the .6750 minor psychological mark or at least until the mid-channel area of interest at .6700.

Price is below both moving averages, though, so there may still be some selling pressure left. A break below the .6600 handle could be enough to signal that a reversal from the short-term climb is due.

Stochastic is already in the oversold region to signal exhaustion among sellers and the oscillator looks ready to turn higher to suggest that buyers are returning. RSI has more room to head south, so selling pressure could stay on for a bit longer.

New Zealand’s quarterly jobs report is up for release this week and strong results might be enough to spur a strong bounce. Analysts are expecting a 0.7% drop, however, faster than the earlier 0.4% reduction in employment. This should be enough to bring the jobless rate up from 4.0% to 5.5%.

As for the dollar, the elections poses the largest risk to USD trades, although more volatility could stem from the release of the NFP report or the FOMC decision. The central bank is expected to sound cautious and possibly lean towards more stimulus, which might then be positive for the US dollar.

As for the jobs report, analysts are expecting a 600K increase in hiring, slightly slower than the earlier 661K gain but an increase nonetheless. Average hourly earnings could tick higher by 0.2% while the jobless rate could dip from 7.9% to 7.7%.