Soybean futures are sliding as much as 1% on Tuesday as new reports suggest China’s soaring demand could begin to ease following the Chinese New Year celebrations. Soybean prices are also slumping amid a strengthening US dollar, which has defied market expectations during the first few weeks of the calendar year. If the world’s largest consumer begins to curtail imports, could this be the end of soybean’s rally?

March soybean futures tumbled $0.1175, or 0.86%, to $13.53.50 per bushel at 17:47 GMT on Tuesday on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT). Despite the latest slump, soybean prices have had a decent start to 2021, rising more than 3% in the first month of trading.

S&P Global Platts is reporting that soybean demand in China could start to decline this month due to the long holiday. Many crushing plants have already begun to wind down operations, with most of these facilities unlikely to reopen until March.

Brazil could also be a significant factor in Beijing’s buying decision. The South American country is reporting soybean harvest delays. This could force China to either wait for Brazil’s harvest to return to normal or purchase more expensive US soybeans. Due to weather conditions, Brazil’s 2020-2021 marketing season has seen its slowest progress in roughly ten years, resulting in just 1.9% of the harvest to be completed, down from 8.9% last year.

Brazil and the US represent approximately 90% of China’s soybean imports.

In the US, market analysts and industry traders are reporting that US soy processors have made purchases that go beyond their historical trends, citing skyrocketing export demand, rising prices, and soybean shortages. Domestic soy crushers are coming off a record year, buoyed by strong demand for diesel biofuel and falling production in Argentina, according to the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA)

The US is already facing lower supplies by about 10% from last year, although output has surged 16%.

A rising greenback is also weighing on soybean prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck against a basket of currencies, has topped the 91.00 threshold for the first time since December. A stronger greenback is bearish for dollar-pegged commodities because it makes it more expensive for foreign investors to purchase.

In other agricultural commodities, March corn futures slumped $0.07, or 1.27%, to $5.4225 per pound. March wheat futures shed $0.0675, or 1.04%, to $6.4425 a bushel. March orange juice futures were unchanged at $1.0685 per pound.