USD/TRY Hits Fresh Record Low As Erdogan Pushes for Rate Cuts by August

The Turkish lira cratered to a fresh all-time low against the US dollar on Wednesday after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for cuts to interest rates to spur economic growth. It had been feared for months that Ankara would begin to ease monetary policy, abandoning the more orthodox route under the previous central bank leadership. Will the lira test the 9 mark against the greenback?

Speaking in a televised interview with state broadcaster TRT Haber late on Tuesday evening, the president urged the central bank to slash rates in the next two months. According to Erdogan, this mechanism would enhance investments, support the economic recovery, and lower borrowing costs for troubled consumers.

“I spoke to the central bank governor today – we certainly need to lower interest rates,” he said. “For that, we need to see July, August for interest rates to start coming down.”

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It was widely believed that the so-called “enemy of interest rates” purposely sacked his third central bank chief in a year, Naci Agbal, and replaced him with Sahap Kavcioglu to implement his economic vision.

Although the new head of the central bank has refrained from cutting rates and has chosen to leave the benchmark policy rate at 19%, most analysts anticipate a cut in the third quarter. But as inflation tops 17% and the lira continues to depreciate, would it devastate the economy?

Turkey has indeed outperformed many of its peers in the economy, but Ankara has paid a significant price. In the first quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) climbed at a better-than-expected annualized rate of 7%. The market had penciled in a GDP gain of 6.7%. This is also up from 5.9% in the fourth quarter.

Whatever the case, foreign investors say that this “late night intervention” is “clearly unhelpful” for Kavcioglu.

Meanwhile, in other data, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.3 in May, down from 50.4 in April — anything below 50 indicates contraction.

On Thursday, the Turkish Statistical Institute will publish its consumer and producer inflation readings. Economists are forecasting a year-over-year inflation rate of 17.25%.

“Turkey’s inflation problem has escalated in recent months with the annual CPI rate exceeding 17% in April, so maintaining high interest rates is infinitely important. As long as the central bank’s hands are tied by politics, it’s difficult to see the bottom in the lira’s multi-decade downtrend,” said Marios Hadjikyriacos, investment analyst at XM, in a note to clients

The USD/TRY currency pair advanced 0.86% to 8.6102, from an opening of 8.5368, at 11:37 GMT on Wednesday. The EUR/TRY rose 0.47% to 10.4770, from an opening of 10.4272.

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