USD/CHF Steady Downtrend Ahead of FOMC & NFP Week

USDCHF continues to cruise lower after testing its descending trend line resistance last week, and the pair is now in the middle of another pullback. The Fibonacci retracement tool shows levels where sellers are likely waiting to join the slide.

Price is testing the 38.2% Fib at .8838, which seems to be drawing selling interest. A larger pullback could reach the 50% Fib near the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point and .8850 minor psychological mark. The 61.8% level is closer to the trend line resistance at .8870 and the 200 SMA dynamic resistance.

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On the subject of moving averages, the 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the selloff is more likely to gain traction than to reverse.

Stochastic is also on the move down to show that bearish momentum is present, although the oscillator is already nearing the oversold region to indicate exhaustion among sellers soon. RSI has more room to slide before reaching the oversold area, but it also seems to have some space to climb before reflecting a return in selling pressure.

USDCHF is likely to take cues from the FOMC decision on Wednesday and the NFP report on Friday. No rate changes are expected from the US central bank this week, as traders are still hoping to get more clues about a September cut.

Meanwhile, the jobs report is slated to show a slowdown in hiring for July, possibly keeping September easing hopes in play. Stronger than expected results, on the other hand, could keep the dollar supported, especially if the Swiss CPI falls short of estimates.

Analysts are expecting a 0.2% dip in price pressures for Switzerland, possibly keeping the SNB on a dovish stance, even after the central bank already surprised with a couple of rate cuts lately.

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