USDJPY Bullish Consolidation Breakout

USDJPY formed higher lows and found resistance at 111.00 to create an ascending triangle on its 4-hour time frame. Price already broke to the upside to indicate that an uptrend is underway.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, the climb is more likely to continue than to reverse. The gap between the moving averages is also widening to signal stronger bullish momentum.

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However, RSI is already in overbought territory to reflect exhaustion among buyers. Turning lower could indicate that sellers are regaining the upper hand and could lead to a dip for USDJPY. Price could retest the broken triangle top or pull back as low as the triangle bottom and moving averages.

Stochastic is moving up to reflect some bullish pressure but is also in the overbought zone. Heading back down could lead the pair to follow suit. Still, price might have around 300 pips to go higher or the same height as the chart pattern.

Risk appetite appears to be returning to the markets, weighing on the lower-yielding Japanese yen. The dollar is able to hold on to its gains thanks to higher bond yields and a positive showing in US equities.

US CPI is due later this week but this could be overshadowed by trade war updates. Although this has contributed to uncertainty for businesses, market watchers still seem optimistic that the Fed could maintain its tightening plans on a continued growth and inflation pickup.

There are no major reports due from Japan and the US other than the CPI, so price action could mostly hinge on overall market sentiment. Another round of trade troubles for the US, however, might force the Greenback to retreat.

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