WTI crude oil continues to climb as it bounced off support once more and recovered to the top of its rising wedge. If this holds as a ceiling, the commodity could slide back to the wedge support around $69 per barrel.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, resistance is more likely to break than to hold or support is more likely to hold than to break. In addition, the 100 SMA lines up with the bottom of the wedge to add to its strength as a floor. A break below this could still encounter bulls at the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point.

RSI appears ready to move lower, though, as it has been hovering around overbought territory for quite some time. Stochastic is also pointing down to signal that selling pressure might return from here.

A break past the resistance around $70.25 per barrel, however, could spur a rally that’s the same height as the chart pattern. This is around $64.50 per barrel to $70.25 per barrel. Similarly, a break below support could lead to a drop that’s the same size.

Crude oil got a boost from the latest data from the Energy Information Administration, which reflected a larger than expected draw in stockpiles. This eased oversupply concerns on the domestic front, even after the American Petroleum Institute reported a slight build in stockpiles.

Traders will now turn to the Baker Hughes oil rig counts to have an idea of how production might fare in the weeks ahead. Note that risk-taking has dipped on account of Trump’s renewed threats of higher tariffs on China once the public comment period concludes next week, possibly setting off another wave lower for commodities.

Then again, reports of declining exports from Iran on account of sanctions is also keeping global glut concerns in check and crude oil price supported.