WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for Apr. 20, 2021

WTI crude oil appears to be resuming its climb as it bounced off the long-term rising trend line visible on the daily and weekly time frames. The Fibonacci extension tool shows the next potential upside targets.

Price is already testing the 38.2% Fib at the $63.50 per barrel mark, and sustained bullish momentum could take it to the 50% extension at $65.40 per barrel. Stronger bullish pressure could lift it to the 61.8% Fib that lines up with the swing high at $67.35 per barrel or to the 76.4% level near the $70 per barrel mark. The full extension is at $73.72 per barrel.

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The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the climb is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. The gap between the moving averages is widening to reflect strengthening bullish momentum as well.

However, stochastic is already in the overbought zone to signal exhaustion among buyers. Turning lower would mean that sellers are already taking over, possibly leading to another test of the rising trend line support. RSI has some room to climb, though, so bullish momentum could stay in play until overbought conditions are met.

WTI crude oil could sustain its climb if risk appetite stays in play and the upcoming inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute and Department of Energy confirm sustained demand.

A large draw in stockpiles would suggest that businesses are ramping up purchases in anticipation of more lockdown measures being lifted, likely resulting in stronger demand for fuel and energy commodities. On the other hand, a large build could suggest that supply remains elevated now that the OPEC has agreed to gradually increase production.

The earlier report showed a larger than expected draw of 5.9 million barrels, and a smaller reduction is expected this time.

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