WTI crude oil is still in consolidation mode as price is closing in on the top of its symmetrical triangle on the 1-hour chart. If this continues to keep gains in check, price could resume the drop to the triangle bottom around $58.50 per barrel.

The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that resistance is more likely to hold than to break. This lines up with the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point that adds to its strength as a ceiling.

Stochastic already reached the overbought zone to signal exhaustion among buyers and is turning lower to show a return in selling pressure. RSI is also turning lower, although the oscillator is on middle ground to reflect consolidation. Sellers might return at the $60 per barrel major psychological mark.

WTI crude oil drew some support from a larger than expected draw in inventories as reported by the Department of Energy. Stockpiles saw a reduction of 3.5 million barrels versus the estimated decrease of 2.0 million barrels and the earlier reduction of 0.9 million barrels.

Sustained risk appetite might spur a break above the triangle resistance, possibly resulting in a rally that’s the same size as the triangle pattern. More progress in vaccination programs and increased stimulus efforts might be enough to keep the commodity afloat, as a pickup in business and consumer activity would boost purchases of fuel and energy commodities.

However, the OPEC recently decided to gradually increase their output now that crude oil prices have somewhat stabilized. This could keep global supply glut fears in play, which would mean that commodity price gains are limited. A return in risk aversion on a resurgence of COVID-19 cases worldwide could mean more losses for crude oil.