WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for Aug. 16, 2021

WTI crude oil is still consolidating inside its descending triangle on the 4-hour time frame, and price might be ready for another dip to support.

The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that resistance levels are more likely to hold than to break. These moving averages are also in line with the triangle top around the $70 per barrel major psychological mark, adding to its strength as resistance.

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Stochastic is on the move down to show that sellers are in control, and the oscillator has a bit of room to go before reaching the oversold region to signal exhaustion. RSI is also heading south, so crude oil price could follow suit until sellers are exhausted.

Sustained selling pressure might even lead to a break below the triangle bottom at $65.61 per barrel, triggering a drop that’s the same height as the chart formation.

Crude oil remains under downside pressure while risk appetite in the financial markets is weak. Geopolitical risks and concerns about the Delta variant spread are still keeping investors away from riskier higher-yielding assets like commodities.

The upcoming inventory numbers from the American Petroleum Institute and Energy Information Administration are likely to push crude oil prices around in the coming days. A large build in stockpiles would suggest that demand has taken a turn lower possibly due to restrictions curbing the spread of the Delta variant.

On the other hand, a draw could suggest that purchases remain supported and that a supply glut might not be a major concern just yet. Keep in mind, though, that the OPEC recently agreed to boost production by 400K barrels per day starting this month until December.

The FOMC minutes might also impact commodity price action midweek, as the policymakers’ reluctance to taper could mean more gains for riskier assets.

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