WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for Aug. 17, 2021

WTI crude oil could be in for a reversal from its selloff, as price is forming a double bottom on its short-term chart. Price has yet to break the neckline at $70 per barrel to confirm that an uptrend will follow.

Technical indicators are giving mixed signals, with the 100 SMA crossing above the 200 SMA to signal that bulls could gain more traction from here. A break past the neckline resistance could set off a climb that’s the same height as the chart pattern, which spans $66 to $70 per barrel.

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Stochastic is on the move up but already dipping into the overbought region, suggesting that buyers are in control but could be exhausted soon. Turning lower would confirm that sellers are taking over, possibly taking crude oil back to the latest lows.

RSI is also on the move up and has room to climb before indicating overbought conditions. Price has yet to break above the dynamic inflection points at the moving averages as additional confirmation of bullish pressure.

Crude oil might take cues from overall market sentiment while traders await the release of the API and EIA inventory numbers later in the week.

Geopolitical tensions are in play so far, as market watchers are keeping close tabs on the situation in Afghanistan. Worsening conflict could drive traders towards safe-haven assets and away from higher-yielding ones like commodities, but crude oil supply might also be crippled if the situation escalates.

A draw in stockpiles for the latest reporting period could also mean more gains for the commodity while a large build could confirm that demand has taken a hit. The Delta variant spread seems to have taken a back seat in the headlines these days, but the risk remains.

The FOMC minutes might also spur volatility for commodities, as the Fed’s taper timeline would likely impact business outlook and investment.

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