WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for Aug. 2, 2021

WTI crude oil continues to trend above its rising trend line on the 1-hour time frame and looks due for another test of support. This happens to line up with Fibonacci retracement levels where more buyers could be waiting.

The 38.2% Fib is close by at $73.27 per barrel while the 50% level is near the trend line at $73 per barrel. The 61.8% level is at $72.67 per barrel near the 100 SMA dynamic support.

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On the subject of moving averages, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that support levels are more likely to hold than to break. In that case, crude oil could resume its climb to the swing high at $74.25 per barrel or higher.

Stochastic is still heading down, though, so the correction could keep going for a while until oversold conditions are met. Buyers could return once the oscillator turns back up.

WTI crude oil continues to enjoy strong support from sustained demand, as more US cities and businesses are reopening. However, the spread of the Delta variant and the slow pace of vaccination in some states could prompt another set of restrictions.

The upcoming inventory report could show another smaller build in stockpiles if purchases remain strong, but a buildup in supply could be reported if businesses are reducing their consumption.

Worldwide supply is also expected to be elevated now that the OPEC+ will be increasing their output by 400K barrels per day as agreed upon. Meanwhile, lockdown measures in some countries like Australia could weigh on demand for fuel and energy commodities like crude oil.

Risk sentiment influenced by top-tier events on the economic calendar, including central bank decisions and jobs data from the US, could also impact commodity movements.

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