WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for Aug. 23, 2021

WTI crude oil is trending lower on its 4-hour time frame, finding support at a newly-forming descending channel. A bounce off this area could draw more sellers at near-term resistance levels.

In particular, sellers might be waiting at the mid-channel area of interest around $66 per barrel or the channel top closer to $70 per barrel. This is also near the dynamic resistance at the moving averages.

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On the subject of moving averages, the 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse.

However, stochastic is turning higher from the oversold region to signal a return in bullish pressure. RSI is also heading up to show that buyers are returning while sellers take a break.

A move below the channel bottom, however, could set off a steeper selloff.

Crude oil is under downside pressure on account of weakening demand and rising supply. Purchases are likely to be weighed down by extended lockdown measures in major economies like Australia and New Zealand.

Meanwhile, global supply is elevated since the OPEC agreed to increase output by 400K barrels per day from this month until December. Still, any adjustments to their production levels might mean some upside for the commodity.

The upcoming inventory data from the API and EIA would likely impact crude oil price action in the near-term. A large build could confirm that demand is taking hits, likely further dragging the commodity price down. On the other hand, a surprise draw might suggest that purchases are enjoying enough support on the reopening of some economies and businesses.

The Jackson Hole Symposium is also worth keeping tabs on when trading commodities since any hints about Fed tapering would impact market sentiment.

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