WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for Aug. 6, 2021

WTI crude oil formed higher lows and lower highs to create a symmetrical triangle on its 4-hour chart. Price just bounced off the triangle bottom and might be due for a move back to the top at $73 per barrel.

However, the 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that support is more likely to break than to hold. If that happens, crude oil could slump by the same height as the chart pattern or around $10.

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Price is also trading below both moving averages, confirming selling pressure. These could hold as dynamic resistance levels on pullbacks.

Stochastic is turning higher after recently indicating oversold conditions or exhaustion among sellers. This means that buyers are taking over and might have enough energy to bring crude oil back to resistance levels.

RSI is also pulling higher without reaching the oversold region, hinting that buyers are eager to return.

Crude oil is under weak footing as the OPEC+ recently agreed to increase production by 400K barrels per day now that prices have stabilized. However, the Delta variant has led to another wave of lockdown measures in several economies, likely crippling demand for fuel and energy commodities.

The EIA crude oil report revealed a surprise build of 3.6 million barrels instead of the estimated draw of 3.2 million barrels, indicating that purchases have taken a huge hit or that supply is elevated. This comes after a draw of 4.1 million barrels the other week.

The upcoming NFP release might bring additional volatility before the week comes to a close, as the outcome would impact Fed policy expectations. Strong data could revive taper speculations, which might be bearish for commodities, while downbeat results could ensure that stimulus could stay in place for much longer.

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