WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for Dec. 9, 2021

WTI crude oil is trending lower on its 4-hour time frame, and price is already testing the descending trend line visible on the 4-hour time frame.

If this holds, price could make its way back down to the bearish targets marked by the Fibonacci extension tool. The 38.2% level is at $66.83 per barrel, then the 50% level is at $64.80 per barrel.

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Stronger selling pressure could take crude oil down to the 61.8% extension at $62.78 per barrel or the 76.4% level at $60.27 per barrel. The full extension is at $56.22 per barrel.

The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that resistance levels are more likely to hold than to break. The gap between the indicators is widening to reflect strengthening selling pressure.

RSI is still heading higher to show that buyers are in control, but the oscillator is closing in on the overbought zone to signal exhaustion. Turning lower could confirm that sellers are ready to take over.

Stochastic is already in the overbought zone to reflect exhaustion among buyers, and the oscillator might be ready to move south soon. If that happens, crude oil price could follow suit as bearish pressure picks up.

Crude oil is on slightly weaker footing as the EIA reported a much smaller draw of 0.2 million barrels in stockpiles versus the estimated reduction of 1.5 million barrels and the previous drop of 0.9 million barrels. This suggests that demand may have weakened in the reporting week or that supply is elevated.

Note that this was just after the time that the US and China released oil reserves into the global market, followed by the emergence of the Omicron variant. This likely led to a combination of slowing demand and a sudden surge in supply.

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