WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for Jan. 19, 2021

WTI crude oil could be in for more losses as price broke through a double top neckline and is ready for a retest. Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool shows where more sellers might join in.

The 50% level coincides with the broken neckline support around $52.80 per barrel and the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point. A shallow pullback could find sellers at the 38.2% Fib or $52.55 per barrel while a large correction could reach the 61.8% Fib closer to $53 per barrel.

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The 100 SMA is still above the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the climb might still resume. However, the gap between the indicators has narrowed enough to reflect weakening bullish momentum. Price has fallen below the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point but is still trading above the 200 SMA dynamic support.

Stochastic appears to be turning lower without indicating overbought conditions, hinting that sellers are eager to return. The oscillator has plenty of room to move south before reflecting oversold conditions, so bearish pressure could stay on for much longer.

RSI, on the other hand, is pointing up and has room to move north before reaching the overbought territory, so price could follow suit while buyers are in control.

Crude oil could take its cues from market sentiment throughout the week, and it appears that investors are pretty nervous ahead of the US Presidential inauguration. Fears of political chaos and protests are keeping traders away from higher-yielding assets these days, although there could be room for profit-taking off short crude oil positions as the risks fade.

The upcoming inventory figures from the API and EIA would likely provide volatility as well. A rise in inventories might bring losses for the commodity as it would signal weak demand while a reduction could bring about gains.

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