WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for Jan. 7, 2021

WTI crude oil recently busted through resistance around the $49.50 per barrel mark then climbed close to $51 per barrel before retreating. A correction to the area of interest seems to be in order, and the Fib tool shows where buyers are waiting.

The 38.2% Fib is holding as support so far, and it might be enough to push price back up to the highs and beyond. A larger pullback could find support at the 50% Fib at $49.11 per barrel or the 61.8% level at $48.67 per barrel that lines up with the 100 SMA dynamic support.

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On the subject of moving averages, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the climb is more likely to gain traction from here. The 200 SMA could also hold as dynamic support around $48.50 per barrel.

Stochastic is pointing down to show that sellers have the upper hand while buyers are taking a break. The oscillator has plenty of room to go before indicating oversold conditions or exhaustion among sellers, so bearish pressure could stay in play for much longer.

RSI is also heading south, so price could follow suit while bears are in control. The oscillator also has a lot of ground to cover before reaching the oversold region, so a deeper pullback may be in order.

Crude oil is trading back above the $50 per barrel mark for the first time in ten months, suggesting a huge improvement in sentiment and outlook. Traders are likely expecting a return to normal business conditions soon as vaccines are being rolled out and the US government is providing support through stimulus.

The upcoming inventory report from the API and EIA could determine how deep the pullback could get, as a large reduction in stockpiles might lead to another leg higher mid-week.

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