WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for July 1, 2021

WTI crude oil continues to trend higher as it bounced off the bottom of its ascending channel on the 1-hour chart. Price is testing the mid-channel area of interest, and a move higher could take it to the resistance at $76 per barrel.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that support is more likely to hold than to break. These moving averages are also close to the channel bottom to add to its strength as a floor.

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Stochastic made its way down from the overbought zone but is starting to turn higher again to suggest that buyers are still in control. RSI seems to be pointing lower and is moving sideways to signal some consolidation.

A break below the support around $73 per barrel could mean that a reversal from the climb is in order.

WTI crude oil could continue to enjoy upside momentum, as the EIA report revealed another larger than expected draw of 5.7 million barrels versus the estimated reduction of 4.2 million barrels. However, this was smaller than the earlier reduction of 7.6 million barrels, suggesting slightly weaker demand.

Then again, producers might have lifted output in order to keep up with rising purchases. Keep in mind that more economies and cities have reopened, so demand for fuel and energy commodities is rising. Concerns about the Delta variant, however, could keep a lid on business activity and crude oil purchases.

The OPEC-JMMC meeting led to some uncertainty for the commodity in the past week, but the lack of any changes to the output deal could keep crude oil afloat. The next source of volatility is the NFP release, as the jobs report would likely impact Fed policy, global borrowing costs, and overall market sentiment.

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