WTI crude oil is hovering at the top of its ascending channel on the 1-hour chart, still deciding whether to bounce or break. Price seems to be forming a continuation pattern, though.

A break past the resistance at the $76 per barrel mark could set off a steeper climb for the commodity. The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that resistance is more likely to break than to hold. The moving averages also line up with the channel bottom to add to its strength as a floor.

Stochastic is moving sideways to signal consolidation while RSI is also moving on middle ground. Turning lower would mean that sellers are returning, possibly taking crude oil down to the channel support around $73 per barrel.

All this could hinge on the OPEC-JMMC meeting which is still ongoing. As it turns out, UAE is opposing a proposal to increase production by 400K barrels per month now that prices have stabilized. Saudi Arabia is insisting on keeping the output deal unchanged until the end of the year.

A decision to increase output could mean downside for the commodity as it could revive oversupply concerns, especially with the Delta variant of COVID-19 threatening to lead to another set of lockdowns all over the globe.

Still, it’s worth noting that the reopening of several economies led to a significant pickup in demand for fuel and energy commodities.

The FOMC minutes could impact crude oil price action as well, as any hawkish bias might revive expectations of higher borrowing costs soon. In that case, commodities could take hits as traders anticipate lower business investment and activity as a result. On the other hand, retaining a cautious stance could be bullish for crude oil.