WTI crude oil is still on a tear and is now testing the top of its rising channel on the 1-hour chart. Stronger bullish pressure could spur a break higher and an even steeper climb.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that resistance is more likely to break than to hold. However, stochastic is reflecting overbought conditions, so turning lower would mean that sellers are taking over.

RSI is also in the overbought region to signal exhaustion among buyers. Crude oil price could follow suit if the oscillator starts moving south to indicate a return in selling pressure. Still, the channel support might hold as it lines up with the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point, which adds to its strength as a floor.

Crude oil might take cues from the inventory data from the API and EIA, along with the upcoming FOMC decision. No actual interest rate changes are eyed, but traders could still react to any changes in forecasts or tapering hints.

In particular, the Fed is expected to upgrade its inflation estimate since the May readings for the core PCE price index and CPI turned out stronger than expected. Emphasizing that these are merely transitory, however, could still keep tightening hopes in check.

A more hawkish Fed statement could be bearish for commodities like crude oil since this would suggest that higher borrowing costs are in the works. In turn, this could weigh on business and consumer spending, which would then limit demand for fuel and energy commodities.

On the other hand, a cautious FOMC decision could keep commodities like crude oil afloat since it would suggest that stimulus could stay in place for much longer.