WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for June 22, 2021

WTI crude oil continues to trend higher as it breached the $73 per barrel resistance but might need to pull back from its rally. Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool shows where buyers might be waiting.

The 38.2% level lines up with the mid-channel area of interest at the $72.31 per barrel mark while the 50% level coincides with the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point. A larger correction could reach the 61.8% Fib that’s in line with the bottom of the rising channel on the 1-hour chart.

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If any of the Fibs are able to keep losses in check, crude oil could recover to the swing high near $74 per barrel and the top of the ascending channel.

Stochastic is heading down from the oversold region, though, suggesting that selling pressure is picking up. RSI also seems to be moving south, so price could follow suit while bearish momentum is in play.

WTI crude oil shrugged off the risk-off flows from last week, as demand remains elevated while the reopening of economies spurred a pickup in business and consumer activity. In turn, this has boosted purchases of fuel and energy commodities.

The upcoming inventory figures from the American Petroleum Institute and Energy Information Administration would likely impact volatility around the middle of the week. A larger than expected draw in stockpiles would confirm that demand remains supported and that oversupply is not an immediate concern.

Analysts have even predicted that crude oil could reach as high as $100 per barrel if these market dynamics keep up. Recall that the OPEC+ reaffirmed their commitment to the output deal even as prices have already stabilized, suggesting that a supply glut won’t be happening anytime soon.

Traders are also keeping tabs on the negotiations over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which has an impact on Iranian crude oil purchases.

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