WTI crude oil completed its retest of the broken resistance around $72.50 per barrel and is now resuming the climb to the upside targets marked by the Fibonacci extension tool.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that support is more likely to hold than to break. However, the gap between the indicators is narrowing to reflect weakening bullish momentum.

The 38.2% level is close by at $73.46 per barrel then the 50% level is at $73.78 per barrel. The 61.8% level is at $74.10 per barrel and lines up with the swing high. Stronger bullish pressure could take crude oil up to the 76.4% extension at $74.50 per barrel or the full extension at $75.15 per barrel.

Stochastic is heading up to show that buyers are in control, which could allow crude oil to test the higher upside targets. However, the oscillator is closing in on the overbought zone to signal exhaustion, so turning lower would confirm that sellers are taking over.

RSI appears to be moving sideways to signal consolidation.

Crude oil would likely take cues from the inventory reports due throughout the week. The API reported a draw of 7.199 million barrels for the week ending June 18 versus analysts’ expectations of a reduction of 3.942 million barrels.

This could mean a similarly large draw for the Department of Energy’s figures due in today’s US session. Analysts predict a reduction of 3.7 million barrels after the earlier draw of 7.4 million barrels, although an larger reduction might mean another leg higher for the commodity.

Also note that the OPEC+ affirmed its commitment to the output deal, even as prices have already stabilized well above $70 per barrel. This could keep global glut concerns in check, especially with demand likely to keep advancing in the months ahead.