WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for June 3, 2021

WTI crude oil continues to cruise higher inside its rising channel on the 1-hour chart and is on its way to test the resistance at $70 per barrel.

Stochastic has been indicating overbought conditions for some time, which means that buyers would likely book profits at this psychological level soon. Turning lower could spur a dip back to nearby support levels, like the channel bottom at $68 per barrel or the mid-channel area of interest at $69 per barrel.

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RSI is also approaching the overbought zone to signal exhaustion among buyers, and heading down could confirm that sellers are returning.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, support levels are more likely to hold than to break. Resistance at the channel top might even be broken, leading to a steeper climb for crude oil.

Analysts are expecting a draw of 1.0 million barrels in EIA stockpiles, which would be slightly lower compared to the earlier reduction of 1.7 million barrels. This could mean that demand has weakened a bit or that supply is elevated.

Still, the commodity is able to draw support from the OPEC+ decision to maintain its output deal even as prices continue to rise. This could mean even more upside for crude oil as supply is constrained.

The upcoming NFP release might also impact commodity price action since this affects risk appetite in general. Traders are on the lookout for more clues that the Fed could start tapering soon, and a strong jobs figure could do just that.

A weak result, on the other hand, could dash hopes of tightening anytime soon, which might then be bullish for commodities like crude oil. After all, low borrowing costs for longer would prop up business and consumer activity.

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