WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for Mar. 15, 2021

WTI crude oil is still supported as it attempts to break past the first upside target at the 38.2% Fib extension level. Sustained bullish momentum could take it up to the higher Fib levels while technical indicators confirm the presence of buyers.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that resistance levels are more likely to break than to hold. Crude oil is trading above both moving averages, so these could hold as dynamic support on pullbacks. The gap between the indicators is narrowing, though, so bullish momentum might be weakening.

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Stochastic is still on the move up but closing in on the overbought zone, so there is some bullish pressure but buyers might be feeling exhausted. RSI has more room to climb but appears to be topping out, and turning lower could mean that sellers are returning.

Buyers might still be able to take crude oil up to the 50% level at $67.24 per barrel or the 61.8% Fib that lines up with the swing high. Stronger bullish momentum could take it up to the 76.4% level at $69.52 per barrel or the full extension at $71.56 per barrel.

Crude oil remains supported as the OPEC+ recently committed to extend their output deal by a few months, easing global glut concerns for much longer. At the same time, the US stimulus package could also support businesses and consumers, which would then boost demand for fuel and energy commodities.

Looking ahead, the FOMC decision might impact commodity price action as it would likely affect overall market sentiment. The Fed could express concerns about rising bond yields, which might then prompt tighter monetary policy.

Also, the upcoming API and EIA figures would likely push crude oil prices around, as a large draw in stockpiles could confirm the pickup in demand.

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