WTI crude oil has formed higher lows and found resistance around $61.50 per barrel, creating an ascending triangle on the 1-hour chart. Price has recently broken above the triangle resistance and might be due for a climb that’s the same height as the chart pattern.

The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, there’s still a chance that price could fall back inside the triangle to test support around $60 per barrel.

Then again, the gap between the indicators is narrowing to reflect weakening bearish pressure and a possible bullish crossover. In addition, crude oil is trading above both moving averages as an early indication of bullish momentum. These technical indicators might also hold as dynamic support on pullbacks.

Stochastic is turning lower to indicate that bearish momentum is returning while buyers are taking a break. RSI is also starting to head south without even reaching the overbought zone, suggesting that sellers are eager to take over.

The upcoming inventory reports from the API and EIA might determine whether or not the upside break could gain some traction. A large draw in stockpiles might be reported due to supply constraints, but traders might take these numbers with a grain of salt now that the Suez Canal cargo blockage has been refloated.

A surprise build, on the other hand, could mean significant downside for the commodity. The upcoming OPEC meetings are likely to impact price action, although no actual announcement is expected for now.

Still, volatility could pick up since traders are about to go on holidays by the end of the week, which is right around the end of the quarter. This could mean a lot of profit-taking activity, and the low liquidity could mean more pronounced price spikes.