WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for Mar. 31, 2021

WTI crude oil appears to be falling back inside its ascending triangle pattern on the 1-hour time frame and might be due for a dip back to support at $60 per barrel. Technical indicators are hinting at a return in selling pressure.

The 100 SMA is still below the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that resistance is more likely to hold than to break. However, crude oil has climbed above both moving averages as an early indicator of bullish pressure.

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Also, the gap between the indicators has narrowed to signal weakening selling momentum. These moving averages could hold as dynamic support levels on pullbacks.

Stochastic is indicating overbought conditions and could be due to turn lower, so price could follow suit. RSI is also turning lower without even reaching the overbought area, suggesting that sellers are eager to take over.

Crude oil could take cues from the inventory figures to be released by the American Petroleum Institute and Energy Information Administration. Analysts are expecting to see a draw of 1.3 million barrels after the earlier build of 1.9 million barrels, suggesting stronger demand.

A larger than expected draw might be reported as the recent blockage in the Suez Canal probably led to supplies being depleted while trade was restricted. Then again, traders might take the latest numbers with a grain of salt since the Ever Given cargo ship has since been refloated.

Profit-taking activity could also pick up in the coming sessions, as traders close out positions for the end of the month and quarter, so low liquidity could keep volatility elevated.

Keep in mind that the OPEC also has meetings coming up and any changes to their output deal might trigger a huge reaction from the commodity.

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