WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for May 24, 2021

WTI crude oil has fallen below support at the $64 per barrel mark and fallen to a low of $61.52 per barrel before pulling up. Price could find resistance at the area of interest then resume its slide.

The Fibonacci retracement tool shows where more sellers are waiting. Price is testing the 38.2% level but could still reach the 50% Fib at $64.28 per barrel or the 61.8% level at $65 per barrel. If any of these are able to keep gains in check, crude oil could slide back to the swing low or lower.

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The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the selloff is likely to resume. Price is also testing the resistance at the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point.

Stochastic is indicating overbought conditions or exhaustion among buyers, so turning lower would mean that sellers are taking over. RSI has a bit more room to climb before reaching the overbought zone, so a larger correction is still possible.

Crude oil could take cues from the inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration.

A draw in stockpiles could signal that demand is picking up on account of more economies and businesses reopening, thereby boosting purchases of fuel and energy commodities. A large build, on the other hand, could suggest that businesses are still being cautious about their crude oil purchases and possibly weigh on the commodity price.

Another report worth keeping tabs on is the US core PCE price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Recall that the headline and core CPI beat expectations, so a strong read is eyed. This could be enough to boost tapering expectations, which would then be bullish for the dollar and bearish for higher-yielding assets like crude oil.

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