WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for May 7, 2021

WTI crude oil is back in correction mode as it pulled back after hitting the resistance on its ascending channel. Price is down to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which happens to line up with the mid-channel area of interest.

A larger pullback could last until the 61.8% level that lines up with the channel support and $63 per barrel major psychological mark. This is also in line with the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point, which adds to its strength as support.

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On the subject of moving averages, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, support levels are more likely to hold than to break. The gap between the indicators is also widening to reflect strengthening bullish pressure.

Stochastic is still pointing lower to show that selling pressure is present, but the oscillator is nearing the oversold region to signal exhaustion. Turning higher could mean that buyers are ready to return and push price back up to the swing high at $66.73 per barrel or higher.

RSI is heading lower, so price could follow suit. The oscillator has room to move south before reflecting oversold conditions, so a deeper correction could be in order.

Crude oil is retreating from its climb as pandemic concerns are once again weighing on risk sentiment. In particular, the surge in cases and fatalities in India are keeping investors wary of another global wave in lockdown restrictions, thereby weighing on demand for fuel and energy commodities.

The upcoming NFP release would likely impact overall market sentiment and price action for higher-yielding assets like commodities. Strong data could underscore the view that the US economy is recovering from the impact of the pandemic, leading to a boost in crude oil.

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