WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for Oct. 6, 2021

WTI crude oil is still cruising higher above its rising trend line on the 4-hour chart, and it looks like price might be due for a dip to support.

Stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions, which means that buyers are exhausted and could use a break. Turning lower would confirm that sellers are taking control until the oscillator reaches the oversold region.

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Price is stalling around the $79.50 per barrel minor psychological resistance, and bulls might be keen on booking profits before it even hits $80 per barrel. Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool shows where more buyers might be hoping to catch the uptrend.

The 38.2% level is at $77.11 per barrel and the 50% level is at $76.36 per barrel, which lines up with an earlier swing high. The 61.8% level is at $75.61 per barrel. If any of the Fibs are able to keep losses in check, crude oil could bounce back to the swing high or higher.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that support levels are more likely to hold than to break. The gap between the indicators is widening to reflect strengthening bullish momentum.

The upcoming EIA inventories report might reveal a smaller build of 0.8 million barrels versus the earlier increase of 4.6 million barrels. This would confirm that demand is picking up or that supply remains restricted after weather disturbances a few weeks back.

Also note that the OPEC agreed to maintain its production deal of increasing output by 400K barrels per day until December instead of being pressured to ramp up supply yet again. This could allow the commodity to go for more gains, even as inflation concerns are already starting to weigh on some major economies.

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