WTI crude oil is pausing from its climb at a key level visible on the long-term charts. Price is stalling below the $80 per barrel mark, which is around the highs in 2018.
The 100 SMA crossed below the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that resistance is more likely to hold than to break. In that case, crude oil could resume the slide to the nearby support levels.
Price is also finding resistance at the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point, but a break above this could set off a reversal from the downtrend.
Stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions or exhaustion among buyers, so turning lower would mean that sellers are taking over. RSI has more room to climb, so buying pressure could stay in play for a bit longer.
Crude oil drew support from a larger than expected draw in stockpiles of 6.4 million barrels as reported by the Department of Energy. The American Petroleum Institute also reported a larger reduction in inventories earlier on, confirming that demand remains supported or that supply is weaker.
Note that weather disturbances left a lot of facilities along the Gulf Coast offline due to damages. Majority of these are still waiting for repairs to be completed, so production could be limited in the coming weeks.
Still, global supply remains elevated as the OPEC has been increasing output by 400K barrels per day since last month. Chinese imports have taken a bulk of these crude oil, but there have been talks of the country releasing their excess inventory as well.
In any case, major swings in risk sentiment could impact commodity price action in the coming days, especially as the focus moves away from the pandemic and onto the reduction of stimulus by central banks.