WTI crude oil looks ready to resume its climb, as price is finding support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and could head back to the swing high from here.

A larger pullback could still reach the 50% level at $73 per barrel which lines up with the rising trend line that’s been holding all month. The line in the sand for a correction is at the 61.8% Fib near the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point at $72.13 per barrel. A break below this could set off a reversal from the uptrend.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the climb could carry on.

Stochastic seems to be pulling higher from the oversold region to signal a return in bullish pressure. RSI, on the other hand, continues to head south. Price could follow suit until the oscillator reaches the oversold region and turns back up.

Crude oil is drawing support from expectations of another supply crunch due to weather disturbances. Another tropical storm is projected to hit the Gulf Coast, possibly resulting to shut-ins among production facilities and a significant reduction in output.

However, the latest EIA inventory report printed a surprise build of 4.6 million barrels versus the projected reduction of 2.5 million barrels. The API also printed a surprise build in crude oil stockpiles for the same period. This suggests that demand may have also taken a hit in the past week.

Still, the reopening of more businesses and a resulting pickup in consumer spending might lift demand for fuel and energy commodities in the coming weeks.

Risk appetite could also push commodity prices around, as the focus on monetary policy adjustments could influence expectations for inflation and borrowing costs. The possibility of seeing a Fed rate hike in mid-2022 could keep price gains in check, along with the reduction of stimulus among most major central banks.