WTI crude oil has formed higher lows and found resistance at the $52 per barrel level, creating an ascending triangle formation. Price is currently testing the resistance, which still seems to be keeping gains in check.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the upside. This means that support is more likely to hold than to break or that an upside breakout is possible. The char pattern spans $42 per barrel to $52 per barrel so the resulting breakout could be of the same size.

However, stochastic is turning lower from overbought levels to signal the presence of bearish pressure. RSI is treading sideways to signal further consolidation.

Crude oil is being pushed around by data on Iraq exports as this country is the OPEC’s second largest producer. There has been no confirmation on whether or not the cartel would extend its output deal until the end of next year.

“The market is currently weighing supportive materials more, such as the Kurdistan situation, the slowdown in shale-related (U.S.) rig counts and the possible extension in OPEC (output) cuts,” said Tomomichi Akuta, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting in Tokyo.

Iraqi oil exports have fallen more than 200,000 barrels per day this October as shipments from the north and south regions are hampered by the ongoing conflict. However, Oil Minister Jabar al-Luaibi said on Saturday southern exports were increasing by 200,000 bpd to make up for the recent dip.

In the US, oil rig count fell seven to 736 in the week to Oct. 20, which is its lowest level since June. This could factor in the upcoming release of inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration. Apart from that, the IEA also just recently projected that Southeast Asian demand for oil will keep growing until at least 2040 as emerging nations there rely on the fossil fuel.